A one-page deal screening model is a single worksheet that converts early, incomplete inputs into a decision you can defend. It standardizes assumptions, shows base and downside economics, and applies blunt kill tests so you stop quickly when you should. Think of it as a small, disciplined model – not a memo, not a teaser rewrite, and not an IC deck.
Used well, it removes noise, frames risk in a comparable way across deals, and gives you a clean audit trail of why a deal lived or died. The payoff is speed with discipline: you cut no-go decisions fast and surface the two or three facts that justify advancing.
Where a one-page model adds the most value
Teams win when they can compare opportunities on the same yardstick. With a few toggles for business model and instrument, the page works across buyout, growth equity, and private credit. The goal is to decide in 48 hours with minimal cost and clear optics: a documented rationale that explains the call.
Different stakeholders gain different benefits. Investment teams get comparable screens across sectors and a clean audit trail. IC chairs and underwriters see clear risk drivers, governance levers, and mandate alignment. Lenders and co-investors see downside coverage, covenant shape, and credible sources and uses. Compliance sees that KYC, sanctions, and beneficial ownership are cleared enough to warrant effort, lowering closing risk.
What is on the one page: four modules that force clarity
- Fit and facts: Mandate fit, deal snapshot, stakeholders, and red flags.
- Business economics: Revenue quality, unit economics, cash conversion, and concentration.
- Structure and scenarios: Sources and uses, entry math, and base and downside cases.
- Decision and next steps: Kill tests, go or conditional or no-go, immediate data asks, and owner assignment.
Step 1: Encode mandate fit and standardize inputs
Start by hard-coding constraints as drop-downs and thresholds, and make them drive yes or no logic. This reduces debate to facts.
- Check size and ownership: Min and max equity ticket; control, minority, or co-control.
- Sector and geography: Allowed industries, excluded sub-sectors, and restricted geographies.
- Return targets: Minimum gross IRR and MOIC by strategy, target hold, and net returns after fees.
- Value levers: Pricing power, buy and build, cost work, and product or roadmap risk tolerance.
- Instrument types: Common, preferred, or convertible; unitranche, second lien, mezz, mezz-like; asset-backed.
Lock up key facts at the top, then avoid re-asking them later. Capture a deal snapshot that includes company, country, sector code, model type, stage, and reporting currency. Log contact and access: bankers, CEO or CFO or counsel, data room status, and information quality score. Clarify funding ask and use across growth, recap, M&A, working capital, and refinance, and tag uses by percentage. Note legal form, parent jurisdiction, key subsidiaries, and a one-line ownership map if known. Run a quick compliance screen on beneficial ownership clarity, sanctions checks, PEPs, and BOI readiness to flag closing risk early.
Apply non-negotiable kill tests that block the process without escalation. These include sanctions or export-control exposure that cannot be ring-fenced, unclear beneficial ownership or unwillingness to provide BOI details after NDA, any core activity in prohibited sectors under the LPA, and refusal to grant basic diligence access within two weeks.
Make provenance and auditability a feature, not an afterthought. Tag each input’s source as management, banker, public filing, third party, or estimate, date-stamp it, and add owner initials. Enforce version control and track a deal code so you can retrieve and audit later.
Step 2: Normalize business economics into five comparable levers
Keep the same headings across deals, and swap sub-metrics based on archetype so comparisons stay meaningful. The aim is to show how cash arrives, how sticky it is, and how much capital it takes.
Use a simple archetype toggle: SaaS, marketplace or payments, consumer brand or e-commerce, industrial or business services, healthcare services, or asset-heavy or infrastructure-lite. Then fill five consistent levers.
1) Revenue quality and visibility
Start with contracted vs transactional mix and backlog months or subscription percent. Then show renewal and churn indicators like gross churn, net dollar retention, renewal rate and term, and cohort repeat. Lastly, quantify concentration with top five and top ten share and counterparty quality to show customer loss risk.
2) Unit economics
Define contribution per unit using the right lens: SaaS gross margin after hosting and support, consumer contribution after variable marketing, fulfillment, and payment fees, or services margin net of labor and materials. Add acquisition or channel cost through CAC or sales productivity, marketing payback, and pipeline conversion and ramp. Round it out with cohort durability via payback months and LTV to CAC using conservative retention decay, capped at three to five years unless data supports more. Faster payback lowers capital needs.
3) Cash conversion
Translate EBITDA to unlevered free cash flow, adjusting for working capital seasonality and structure, and show DSO, DPO, and inventory turns. Separate maintenance capex from growth capex, and capitalize software if material. Clarify contract liabilities, deferred revenue, and unwind. This makes liquidity clearer and avoids surprises.
4) Operational scalability
State capacity constraints such as fulfillment nodes, clinical labor, or plant throughput. Flag platform or partner dependency like cloud concentration, key suppliers, or single points of failure so resilience can be tested.
5) Regulatory and legal exposures
List licensing and permits that matter such as healthcare provider status, payment sponsors, and data privacy regimes. Note revenue recognition complexity in reseller or channel models and multi-element allocations. Add litigation or compliance items like reimbursement disputes, IP claims, or earnouts.
Keep each field to a number or a categorical value plus a one-line comment. Flag estimates with an E and note the assumption in a small footnote box. Add a reconciliation block that shows LTM revenue and gross margin with three and twelve month trends if available, ARR for subscription businesses with logo and dollar retention basis, and an unlevered FCF proxy that adjusts EBITDA for maintenance capex and working capital. Tag seasonal vs structural so debt capacity is previewed. For a deeper refresher on core financial plumbing, see how a three-statement model stitches these flows together.
Step 3: Build a minimal structure and scenarios engine
Put three scenarios on one page. Base discounts management optimism. Downside cuts growth, compresses gross margin, and delays efficiency. Upside is optional and should never drive the decision.
Start with a compact sources and uses that lists equity, debt tranches, rollover, seller note, earnout, and third party financing on the sources side, noting OID and fees if credit heavy. On uses, show purchase price, fees and expenses, cash to balance sheet, debt refinancing, and transaction taxes. For ownership, present a post-close cap table by class, and for minority or structured deals, include preferences and conversion triggers so control and exit path are explicit. If you want a second template view, compare to this sources and uses template.
Set valuation and entry cleanly with entry EV and equity check and include net debt adjustments and material leases. Name the comp set, but avoid a comp book on the page. Limit your sensitivity drivers to two or three that move value most, usually growth, margin, sales efficiency, or capex intensity. This enforces price discipline.
For debt and covenants, summarize the stack – senior, unitranche, mezz, ABL – the security package, and guarantors. Preview coverage with DSCR, interest coverage, and fixed charge coverage from base and downside cash flows. Note structural protections like springers, MFN, restricted payments, builder baskets, and reporting cadence. For ABL, show borrowing base and advance rates. If modeling specifics get hairy, build a small debt schedule off to the side and link only the outputs.
Keep scenario mechanics near term and realistic: eight quarters plus a terminal snapshot for exit math if needed. In base, set growth, gross margin, opex path, maintenance capex, and working capital intensity, and output unlevered and levered FCF. In downside, reduce growth, compress margin, delay efficiency, and increase working capital drag – move only the drivers that matter for the model. To sharpen your assumptions toolkit, see a brief contrast of sensitivity vs scenario analysis.
Do returns math that fits the instrument. For equity, show MOIC and gross IRR from the equity check, interim cash flows, and exit proceeds using a conservative exit multiple tied to base growth and margin. In downside, assume exit at cost and test if interim distributions support the case. For credit, show DSCR by quarter, minimum liquidity, and covenant headroom, and add an expected loss proxy that combines a PD band, LGD from collateral coverage, and EAD net of amortization, with a documented rationale.
Illustrate with a mini-example so readers can sanity check. Imagine a vertical SaaS business with 40 million ARR at 75 percent gross margin, NDR 110 percent (E), and the top ten at 25 percent of ARR. Sources and uses show a 120 million EV at 6.0x ARR with decelerating growth, 60 percent equity and 40 percent unitranche, cash pay, and no amortization for two years with fees at 3 percent of EV. Base has ARR growing 20 percent then 18 percent, 200 bps margin expansion, maintenance capex at 2 percent of revenue, and neutral working capital; exit is on a 12 month forward revenue multiple aligned to base growth. Downside has ARR growing 10 percent then 8 percent, gross margin down 200 bps, opex flat, working capital at negative 2 percent of revenue, and exit at the entry multiple or at cost. Outputs show base above 2.0x MOIC and IRR above the hurdle, downside around 1.2x MOIC with breakeven IRR and low covenant risk, with a trigger for a mandatory add-on equity flag if downside liquidity drops below three months of burn. For more on the financing side of the capital stack, see an overview of unitranche loans.
Close the scenarios with a regulatory and accounting preview. Flag BOI and KYC requirements, especially for sensitive jurisdictions or counterparties, and confirm willingness to comply. Note consolidation and fair value treatment, and highlight if VIE or voting interest tests could force consolidation so governance terms can be drafted accordingly. If fair value is required quarterly, state initial valuation inputs; if loans are at amortized cost, note impairment testing and internal rating slot so quarter-end friction stays low.
Step 4: Drive the decision and define the next ten questions
Use a clear decision box. Go means the deal meets mandate, base and downside are acceptable, and there are no structural blockers. Proceed to LOI or term sheet and list two to four gating diligence items with owners. Conditional go means one or two uncertainties must clear; define the threshold and test, such as NDR validated at 105 percent or greater with audited cohorts, or covenant resets accepted by senior lenders within two weeks. No-go means a kill test fails, downside is unacceptable, or the mandate is a misfit; write one sentence on why and archive.
Keep the next ten questions focused on drivers: cohorts and logo churn by segment and renewal options; price actions and outcomes; top ten contracts and renewal calendars; AR aging, DSO trend, and deferred revenue roll-forward; maintenance vs growth capex and asset registers; quota coverage, attainment distribution, and ramp curves; top suppliers and contracts with alternatives and notice periods; cap table, IP assignments, and intercompany agreements; current credit agreements and compliance certificates; and enhanced sanctions screens, BOI details, and designated filer readiness. Assign an owner and due date to each. Lock the page and start a new version only if structure changes, making accountability explicit.
Encode mechanics that often get missed at screening. Clarify equity preferences including liquidation multiple, seniority, participation, conversion, and consent rights that affect control or exit. Spell out earnouts and seller notes, including triggers, caps, security, and subordination, and note accounting and tax consequences. For intercreditor, show lien priority, standstill, cure rights, and springing covenant triggers to make the downside path clearer.
Map documents needed for early review. Ask for a teaser or CIM and note who said what. Request latest monthly financials or bank statements if missing. Get customer and supplier summaries with exposures and renewal schedules, an org chart and cap table, current debt agreements even if redacted, a list of licenses and permits by jurisdiction and expiry, any litigation summary, and for VC or growth, the latest board deck with KPIs aligned to model inputs. If you are formalizing this handoff, see how teams go from CIM to a one-tab screening model.
Normalize economics and fees so IRR math is honest. Record one-off transaction and financing fees, and for credit, OID and upfronts, and allocate correctly in sources and uses. Capture recurring fees like monitoring, board, and ticking, with payer and term. Flag tax leakage such as transfer taxes, withholding, and non-deductibles and note blocker or treaty needs. A 5 million transaction fee can cut MOIC by roughly 0.1x in a thin case if not capitalized; a 2 percent OID lifts yield but shrinks borrower proceeds, so confirm uses still clear or re-tranche.
Finish with regulatory gate checks. Run baseline sanctions and AML screens on counterparties and beneficial owners and document date and tool. Flag export controls or CFIUS if sensitive technology or foreign investors are in scope and consider clean teams. If diligence crosses borders, plan notifications or clean-room access for PII or HR data. If syndication or co-invest is expected, confirm private placement path and selling restrictions by jurisdiction to reduce distribution risk.
Common pitfalls and simple kill tests
- No owner on a field: It will stay wrong. Assign every line.
- Underwriting to upside: If upside does the work, change price or structure or pass.
- Overbuilt model: Extra inputs reduce comparability and add false comfort. Strip to drivers.
- Ignoring cash conversion: EBITDA does not service debt or fund growth. If conversion is weak in base and downside, change the structure or walk.
- Misreading working capital: Seasonal AR builds can choke cash in Q4. Stress the pinch quarter.
- Top customer risk: If top five exceed your threshold, demand documentary evidence or price for it.
- Loose definitions: Recalculate ARR and retention with your definitions; the gap often drives the call.
- Refi dependency: If the case needs a refi inside 24 months, assume the market is closed unless you have an underwrite or backstop.
The one-page template blueprint
Keep the structure consistent so anyone can read it in two minutes. Block A, Fit and facts, should be 20 lines or fewer, with mandate drop downs and source and date tags on each field. Block B, Business economics, should present the five levers with three sub-metrics each, a four-line reconciliation, and one comment line per lever. Block C, Structure and scenarios, should include sources and uses, three scenarios with a small driver table and outputs, equity and credit metrics side by side, and a one-line waterfall if relevant. Block D, Decision and next steps, should show status, a two sentence rationale, and the next ten questions with owners and dates. Use data validation for every category, protect formulas, keep a change log, and avoid hard-coding in outputs so auditability stays strong.
Adaptation by strategy and governance
Adjust emphasis by strategy while keeping the format stable. Control buyout should emphasize cash conversion, synergy capture, leverage constraints, expected consolidation, governance model, and management bench. Minority growth equity should focus on ownership math and control rights and test whether targets are achievable without control levers. Private credit should highlight collateral value, recovery paths, covenant triggers, and borrower liquidity in downside without revolver reliance to fund losses so loss severity is contained.
Maintain governance and auditability. Every number must trace to a source or a named estimate, and the tag should be visible. Lock the one-page PDF at decision time and archive it in the deal room, and keep the working file with version and date. If the deal proceeds, include the page as Appendix 1 in the IC deck so IC sees continuity from screening to underwriting.
Measuring success: three KPIs for your screening program
To keep the tool honest and evolving, measure its performance. Track time to no-go from first touch to decision to ensure you are cutting fast. Monitor a false positive rate by checking the share of screened go or conditional go deals that later die at IC for risks the page should have caught. Score documentation completeness using a simple checklist and aim for 95 percent plus fields with a source tag and owner by Day 2. When these three move in the right direction, your hit rate and team capacity both improve.
Closing Thoughts
A one-page deal screening model forces teams to underwrite drivers instead of narratives, price the downside first, and fit structure to risk. Most deals end – this makes them end quickly and cleanly. Build it once, enforce version discipline, and you will preserve scarce time for the few opportunities that deserve it.